Copper Market Update — December 2025

 Prices Near Historic Highs

Copper prices have continued their strong rally, pushing toward a near-record level of around $12,000 per metric tonne on major exchanges like the London Metal Exchange (LME). This year’s gains — roughly 35% year-to-date — are among the largest in more than a decade. MiningFeeds

Futures market activity remains elevated, reflecting active investor participation even as trading volumes fluctuate. AP News

📈 What’s Driving the Rally

1. Strong Structural Demand

• The ongoing shift toward renewable energy, electrification, and EV production continues to underpin demand for copper, which is critical for wiring, power infrastructure, and batteries.

• Data center expansion — especially for AI computing infrastructure — is also a notable demand driver. MiningFeeds

2. Tight Supply Conditions

• Global supply has been constrained by mine disruptions and slower production growth.

• Major producers like the Grasberg complex in Indonesia have faced operational setbacks, adding to supply risk. IndexBox

3. Trade Flows & Stockpiling

• Policies and trade uncertainty have encouraged stockpiling in some regions, particularly the U.S., which has absorbed a large share of available material and put further upward pressure on prices. Business Insider

📊 Supply vs. Demand — Market Dynamics

Analysis from major research groups suggests:

• Global refined copper markets likely remain tight through 2025 and into 2026 due to widening production deficits. JPMorgan Chase

• Long-term deficits are forecast as demand continues to outstrip supply growth, even as new projects gradually come online. JPMorgan Chase

This dynamic has created a bullish structural backdrop for copper prices even amid mixed economic indicators globally.

📉 Outlook & Forecasts

Short-term (late 2025 – early 2026)

• Banks like J.P. Morgan project continued strength, with prices potentially averaging above current levels through mid-2026. JPMorgan Chase

Long-term views vary

• Some forecasts point to further upside as infrastructure build-outs expand globally, while others suggest potential volatility if economic conditions soften. Goldman Sachs

🛠️ What This Means for Scrap and Recycling Markets

• Higher copper prices generally translate to better returns for sellers and increased incentive to recycle higher-quality material.

• With tight supply and elevated global demand, copper remains one of the most sought-after metals in the secondary materials market.

📅 Watch Lists

Keep an eye on:

• Ongoing mine production reports from Chile, Indonesia, and the DRC

• Futures market open interest and volume shifts

• Policy and tariff developments that could reshape trade flows